2026 U.S. midterms
Projected seats and documented caucus alignments do not assign control to either party.
Rounded to one decimal; tiny chances use bounds.
Showing Senate outcomes when House control is Democratic. This is an association in the model, not a causal effect.
Senate outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Baseline | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 65.2% | 64.5% | +0.6 pp |
| Republican | 32.5% | 33.1% | −0.6 pp |
| Unresolved control | 2.3% | 2.4% | +<0.1 pp |
244,843 raw draws · denominator 0.9831585399203256 · 235,194.156 effective draws · approximate 95% Monte Carlo half-width 0.2%. This sampling-error estimate does not measure model uncertainty.
First publication. No earlier release to compare.
Displayed scenario shares use largest-remainder rounding to one decimal place. A positive share rounded to zero appears as <0.1%; a share rounded to 100.0% appears as >99.9% unless its exact value is 100%.
