General use
OddsFox does not endorse a candidate, party, campaign, or political position. Forecast probabilities are estimates, not facts, guarantees, betting odds, or individualized advice. Do not rely on them as financial, legal, or investment advice.
Experimental limitations
The 2026 Congress forecast is experimental research and has not passed historical validation. Kalshi and Polymarket prices are inputs to its published hybrid, not independent confirmation of accuracy. Analyst labels map to uncalibrated prior scores. Conditional results show associations in simulations, not causal effects between chambers. The displayed Monte Carlo half-width measures simulation sampling error only; it is not a forecast interval and does not capture the full uncertainty of real-world outcomes. Scenario probabilities have no displayed confidence interval.
Input uncertainty and revisions
Inputs may be delayed, revised, or unavailable. OddsFox may update or withdraw a release as data or methods change. Check its publication time and methodology before interpreting results. Past election data or model performance do not ensure future accuracy.
View the Congress forecast · Read its methodology and credited sources